KS-02, MI-13: Primary Results Thread

Polls are now closed in Kansas and Michigan. We’re following the results in the KS-02 Republican primary and the MI-13 Democratic contest.

RESULTS: KS-02 | MI-13

2:18 AM (Crisitunity): Finally those last few clots of votes came in, in both races! In KS-02, 100% are reporting. Jenkins has 51% (32,240) and Ryun has 49% (31,233).

In MI-13, 99% are reporting. Cheeks Kilpatrick has 39% (20,603), Waters has 36% (19,009). Looks like the incumbent survived.

1:06AM (James): A few more precincts are reporting in Kansas: with 96% in, Jenkins’ lead has grown to 865 votes.

12:45AM: The needles seem stuck in both Kansas and Michigan, and I think I’ll call it a night soon. I’m betting on wins for Jenkins and Kilpatrick.

12:21AM: Kilpatrick is now up by 900 votes. I’d be surprised if she lost.

12:12AM: Cheeks has now take a 111 vote lead. Note that only 71% of precincts are reporting – that’s 1% more votes counted in the last half hour. This could take forever. Then again, Cheeks has done nothing but gain for a long while now. I’d be surprised if that trend reversed itself.

12:02AM: Jenkins’s lead has slipped to just 750 votes (51-49). Still, by my estimates, there may be only around 5,300 or so votes remaining to be counted, and Ryun would need to win those 57-43 to take the lead.

11:46PM: In another nice bit of news out of Kansas, former state AG, current Johnson County DA and all-around fuckwad Phil Kline was defeated in the GOP primary tonight. (Johnson Co. is an affluent KC suburb.)

11:42PM: MI-13 is now as tight as can be. It’s 38-38, with Waters just 60 votes ahead, and a full 30% remaining to be counted.

11:40PM: Could she do it? Jenkins just pushed back out to a 52-48 lead. My back of the envelope says that Ryun needs 57% of the outstanding vote in order to win. In other words, he needs to run a whopping 19 points better than he has all night to eke out the narrowest of wins. It’s certainly possible (who knows just which precincts remain?), but looking harder by the minute.

11:29PM: Waters now has just a 300-vote lead over Kilpatrick. Yipes.

11:26PM: Man, you can practically smell the flop-sweat pouring out of both Jenkins’s and Ryun’s campaign HQs tonight. It’s now back to 51-49 Jenkins with 56% of the vote in. If we’re lucky, we’ll go to a recount.

11:15PM: Meanwhile, over in MI-07, top-tier recruit Mark Schauer is winning his primary over repeat candidate Sharon Renier by just 65-35. Renier has raised only $10K all told this cycle. Not an inspiring showing.

11:10PM: Crikey – it’s 38-37 in MI-13 now, 65% of the vote counted. In all likelihood, the suburbs reported first and now we’re getting a slow trickle from the city of Detroit itself. That’s Cheeks Kilpatrick’s base, which would explain why the gap is closing if true.

10:59PM: Things are getting tighter in MI-13. With 62% of the vote in, Waters leads Kilpatrick by just 39-36, with Scott far behind at 25. You’d have to believe that this would have been a rout with only one challenger.

10:50PM: Now 43% is in and the race in KS-02 remains remarkably stable – Jenkins still on top with 52-48.

10:35PM: A full third of the vote has been tallied in KS-02, and Lynn Jenkins has widened her lead just a touch, to 52-48. If somehow she holds on through the night, this could be a fairly big upset.

10:27PM (James): With 49% in, it’s now 40-34-26 (Waters-Cheeks Kilpatrick-Scott). In KS-02, with 33% of the vote in, it’s 52-48 Jenkins — a stunning turnaround given her consistently weak performance in all of the polling we’ve seen of this race.

10:12PM: With 21% of the vote in, it’s still 51-49 Jenkins.

9:55PM (James): With 27% counted, it’s now 42-30-28 in MI-13. Over in KS-02, Jenkins is maintaining her 51-49 lead with 10% in.

9:40PM: It’s now 43-34-23 in MI-13 (Waters-Scott-Cheeks Kilpatrick), with 9% of the vote recorded.

9:39PM: With 7% in, Jenkins is holding her 51-49 lead over Ryun.

9:21PM (James): With only 1% of precincts reporting, Lynn Jenkins has a 51-49 edge over Jim Ryun in the KS-02 primary. I’d be stunned if she held onto that lead, though. Kilpatrick continues to lag in third place in MI-13 with 6% in.

9:17PM (James): With just 3% of precincts reporting, Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick is lagging in third place behind Mary Waters and Martha Scott (respectively) at 46-38-18.

121 thoughts on “KS-02, MI-13: Primary Results Thread”

  1. With 1% in Kilpatrick is in last place.

    Mary Waters, 689, 45%

    Martha Scott, 556, 36%

    Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, 299, 19%

  2. An yone know if any of the GOP candidates are legit?  That’s a lot of republicans running for their nomination, though I assume Stupak is going to cruis regardless in the general.

  3. Looks like the fourth incumbent this cycle.  Thanks to her son, but also her own behavior.  The sealing point was her “bra” comment at a debate.  She’s definately gone…Gross Pointe and Wyandotte are going to turn out the vote against her.

  4. Well if Jenkins wins that primary we can kiss Boyda’s chances of holding onto the district goodbye. I don’t think Boyda could possibly beat Jenkins in the general. We’re doomed there.

  5. That’s what wikipedia says.  This must be embarrassing for them.  Well this and what will likely be a crushing defeat for Tinker in TN-09.

  6. Waters , Mary Dem 3,151 43%

    Scott , Martha Dem 2,469 34%

    Cheeks Kilpatrick , Carolyn (i) Dem 1,664 23%

  7. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear Kilpatrick come out with a racist laden speech later tonight or this week.  Her past actions make her a qualified loser for such.  Barbara Rose Collins must be celebrating tonight.

  8. Looks like Mark Schauer is cruising by a 2:1 margin to a primary victory over 2006 nominee Sharon Renier, who basically does not campaign or fundraise.  In fact, as of July 16th of this year, Renier had a total of $3 cash on hand.  Not $3,000.  $3.00.  Seriously.

  9. so I’ll post this either in celebration of Kilpatrick’s win or in commiseration of her loss:

  10. Waters , Mary Dem 11,111 41%

    Cheeks Kilpatrick , Carolyn (i) Dem 8,960 33%

    Scott , Martha Dem 7,276 27%  

  11. Yeah go Jenkins! I didnt think she would win, and of course theres still a good chance she wont, but it is encouraging that shes even ahead of Ryun! I feel she will be a stronger nominee than Ryun, and indeed if Ryun loses, it will be more evidence as to how weak he is.

    1. And Detroit is still a great city (and before anyone judges, go there first!) that deserves so much better than what it gets from its politicians, its police department, its labor unions, etc., etc.  I know someone who has worked construction there for some time, and the stories I’ve heard of corruption made my eyelids curl.

  12. If Ryun is defeated tonight, it will show that even his OWN party thinks that he’s too conservative!

    How embarrassing would that be to the former congressman, first defeated by a DEM and then rejected by your own party

    I’m not ready to write off Boyda yet.I think she still has a shot against Jenkins, don’t count her our yet. I think Lampson’s seat will be the hardest one to hold

  13. And Kilpatrick is within 3 points and less than 1000 votes.  I think we all may have wrote her political obit. a little too soon.

  14. I’m rooting for Ryun.

    Not sure who to root for in MI-13 but it’s sure a interesting race!

  15. I seem to recall Bill Foster barely beating the ’06 nominee, John Laesch, but in the end, it had no impact on Foster’s good win over Oberweis.  I am betting Renier got her votes solely on name recognition.  I wouldn’t read too much into her numbers.

  16. with the exception of jim martin’s victory (which i’m delighted about), we seem to have nominated the weaker candidates on our side and they seem to have nominated the stronger on their side.

    now will voters feel that they’ve punished cheeks- kilpatrick enough with this brush with political mortality or will they be less likely to vote in the general?

  17. She’s taken the lead. Waters started out strong because of the suburbs but she won’t get back into the lead again.

    If it wasn’t a split anti-Kilpatrick vote she would have gone down. Similar to Ed Town’s victory in 06. I bet she’ll lose her seat in 2010 following her son.

    1. choosing who to root for

      one hand I’d like to root for Ryun, but can’t stand his views and in the off chance he somehow upsets Boyda then I’ll be real worried.

      Jenkins at least is a little more moderate, the question lies how much to the right of Boyda is she? and how strongly did she carry the district in her statewide runs?

  18. Poor Phil Kline lost and Ryun is losing.  I guess moderate Republicans are showing more power tonight..Not good news for Democrats however.

  19. GOP chose their strongest candidate, making Boyda maybe the second-most vulnerable Democratic incumbent.

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